It was fair to wonder entering the season how Mike Conley would look this year. At 31 years of age and coming off a heel injury, a steep decline was realistic. Luckily for Memphis, the early returns are extremely positive, with room for improvement to boot. For Memphis to stay in the playoff hunt they are going to need a lot from Conley, but he seems up to the task.

Defensive Impact

Y’all ready for this? Mike Conley is #1 in our DPOE data as of this writing. Sorry Draymond, but you’ll have to go through Conley to claim that second DPOY award.

In all seriousness this is a huge boon for Memphis. The Grizzlies are now 3rd in defensive rating, with a mark of 101.5. But when Conley is on the floor, Memphis’ defensive rating is 95.4, better than Boston’s league leading 96.2. There is certainly more to the Grizzlies’ defensive rating when Conley is on the floor than just Conley, but he is a large part.

For evidence I submit exhibit A, defended field goal percentage. Opponent’s field goal percentage in Mike Conley’s defense is 32.6%, the 5th best DFG% among players defending at least seven field goals per game. (Quick side observation – Milwaukee has three players in the top four, four players in the top seven, and five in the top thirteen. That doesn’t seem fair). Is some of this fluky due to such a small sample size? Of course. But we have reason to believe Conley can remain a plus on the defensive end. That reason brings us to our next topic of..

Sustained Athleticism

A 31 year old coming off a heel injury is fair game to question if a decline in athleticism is looming. As best we can tell so far, Mike Conley is still spry.

Conley played only 12 games last year due to his injury, so let’s scrap that and look at 2016-17 where he played 69 games, which was his age 29 season. According to tracking data, Conley ran an average of 1.02 miles per game on defense in 2016-17, at an average speed of 3.84mph. So far in 2018-19, the miles traveled on defense have held steady at 1.01, with his average speed actually increasing to 4.00mph. In fact, if we zoom out to look at total miles and total average speed, Conley is up over his age 29 numbers in both categories. At age 29 he traveled 2.33 miles per game at an average speed of 4.22mph. This year, at age 31, he is traveling 2.45 miles per game at an average speed of 4.37mph.

Why does this matter, you ask? For one, athleticism is pretty important in professional sports. But to tie this back to his defensive impact, consider this study by Sebastian Pycior. Pycior found that the three indicators that correlate to defensive impact the strongest – and this is true for bigs, perimeter players, and point guards – are Defensive Player Impact Plus Minus (DPIPM), distance in defensive miles per game, and average speed on defense in a game.

The main point here is that there isn’t an indication Conley is any less athletic than the last time he played 60+ games. Conley may not finish the season first in DPOE, but having the usual Mike Conley is very important since..

Mike Conley is Absolutely Vital to Memphis

Coming into the season the expectation was Memphis had a chance to excel on defense but really struggle on offense. Our player grading system looks at seven different offensive categories for each player. Based on 2017-18 grading for the Grizzlies’ roster (and 2016-17 for Conley due to injury), Conley is the only individual on Memphis to achieve an A- or better in at least four offensive categories.

Once you add in his B grade for finishing it becomes very self evident Conley is the team’s most impactful offensive player. So how has Conley been impacting the offense this season?

Let’s Call it Manipulation

Being the crafty vet that Mike Conley is, we shouldn’t be surprised at how well he can manipulate a defense. This has manifested itself into opportunities for teammates through the first six games.

powered by Advanced iFrame free. Get the Pro version on CodeCanyon.

Notice Conley probe and bait the defense to focus on him and Gasol before finding Temple who moved into a perfect catch and shoot area. Conley also understands the power of his own gravity, as he will suck multiple defenders toward him before finding an open shooter.

powered by Advanced iFrame free. Get the Pro version on CodeCanyon.

As for the two man game with Gasol, it is very much alive and well.

powered by Advanced iFrame free. Get the Pro version on CodeCanyon.

That may appear as a very simple bounce pass out of the pick and roll, but let’s appreciate that Rudy Gobert – Rudy Gobert – was so concerned with Conley having the ball he allowed Gasol to slip right behind him for an easy layup. It’s fair to wonder if Gobert was expecting help behind him, and Donovan Mitchell makes zero effort to contest Gasol’s shot, but considering how hard Gobert scampered to recover after the pass it seems like Gobert just overcommitted.

Also, things like this are just fun.

As it stands, Conley is averaging 7.1 assists per 36 minutes, which would be a new career best should it hold. His defense coupled with his passing is already awesome, but there is still room for more from Conley.

Shooting Woes

Mike Conley is off to a brick-tastic start to the season. His field goal percentage is 38.1, he’s shooting 28.2% from deep, and is sporting a 43.8% eFG and 50.9% true shooting. Woof. Alas, it’s likely Conley is just experiencing a cold streak as opposed to this poor start being cause for concern.

Conley is shooting 33.3% on open shots this year, defined as the closest defender being within 4-6 feet. Specifically on open two point attempts he is shooting 23.1%. On wide open shots, defined as the closest defender being 6+ feet away, Conley is again shooting 33.3%.

This seems unlikely to persist. For starters, on tightly contested shots (closest defender within 2-4 feet), Conley is shooting 48.5%, buoyed by a mark of 61.5% inside the arc. Second, he is shooting 85.3% from the line this year, which is in line with/better than his career mark of 81.5%. It seems more logical that Conley just hasn’t gotten it going yet in comparison to the alternative that he just forgot how to shoot. I mean, he has yet to even hit a corner three this year, and he is a career 42.2% corner three marksman. But based on the openness of his 3-point shots so far, he’s scored 9.2 points less than expected.

And Shot Selection Woes

Conley is also posting a similar alteration in shot profile as some of his teammates, as he is taking less shots at the rim than he normally does. This has resulted in an uptick in mid-range shots, despite how inefficient he has been from those ranges.

Conley is shooting 66.7% at the rim so far, which for context is roughly what Kyrie Irving shot at the rim last season (64.9%). Comparatively, Conley is at 33.3% from 10′-16′ and 26.7% from 16′ out to the three-point line.

Point being, the evidence suggests Conley won’t keep clanking this many jump shots, and there’s every reason to believe he will get back to attacking the basket as often as he used to. Both of those changes will result in better efficiency.

That increased efficiency is fascinating when you consider the implications. We mentioned before how Conley is currently posting his best assists per 36 minutes mark. We’ve also outlined his awesome start on the defensive end. Factor in that Conley is just a shade below his career best in points per 36 minutes. Right now he is at 21.8, and his best season was 2016-17 with 22.2. Now imagine what’s possible once his efficiency improves.

That 2016-17 season was Conley’s best in terms of RPM Wins on record. It sounds crazy to say, but at age 31 Mike Conley is gunning for his best season yet.

Image by Riley Gisseman