Less than a year ago, Hoops Habit ran an article titled, “The Devolution of Emmanuel Mudiay.” In it, the writer says that Mudiay’s projected ability to finish around the rim was his greatest strength as a prospect; however, “in the NBA, it’s been his biggest weakness.” The author was right. Mudiay was abysmal in Denver, displaying a complete lack of touch for two and a half years. The only glint of gold to be found panning through his numbers is that he has improved incrementally each season. Per Cleaning The Glass, after shooting 45% at the rim during his rookie campaign, Mudiay spent the next season and a half connecting on 49% of his shots at the rim. In his 32 total games for the Knicks between last season and this season, Mudiay has improved to 57% at the rim.
The chart below, created using data from NBAWowy, further illustrates the point. It shows Mudiay’s layup frequency (as a percentage of total shots) and layup field goal percentage, year over year (Note: last season is split up between Denver and New York):
He’s not Giannis, but it’s progress. Over the years, his path to “average starting point guard” has become less and less visible (though it is not entirely unnavigable). But, his path to the less sexy “solid NBA rotation player who contributes to winning basketball” is still very much within reach for the 22-year-old. For that to occur, a few things need to happen. 1) He needs to improve his defensive awareness and intensity (that’s a whole different article). 2) He needs to show his improved mid-range and outside shooting is sustainable. Per Cleaning The Glass, he’s currently 17/29 (59%) on mid-rangers, good for the 95th percentile among his position group. That number will inevitably decline, but the question is how far? 3) Most importantly, he needs to continue his improvement getting into the lane and finishing at the tin.
Listed at 6’5, 200 lbs, after reportedly losing 15 pounds over the offseason, Mudiay is still a bruiser at the point guard position. For him to fully leverage that size, he needs to become elite at driving into the paint, absorbing contact and finishing at the rim. He unquestionably has the tools. Watch him take it to part-time bouncer Steven Adams, possibly the strongest guy in the league:
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He’s also done a great job of exploiting size mismatches, so far. Orlando’s DJ Augustin was helpless in their most recent matchup. Per NBA.com’s matchup data, Mudiay scored nine of his 12 points on 4-of-6 shooting when defended by the smaller Augustin:
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What I was most impressed by, though, was seeing Mudiay torch Jrue Holiday, maybe the best point guard defender in the league. During Holiday’s 10 possessions matched up on him, Mudiay scored nine points on 4-of-4 shooting, including this bully ball move:
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Per NBA.com, Mudiay ranks fourth on the Knicks in drives per game at 6.3. He’s right behind Trey Burke (8.6), Tim Hardaway Jr. (6.6), and Allonzo Trier (6.5). But in terms of productivity, he’s well ahead of the rest of the group. He’s shooting 62.5% (15-of-24) on shots out of drives, by far the best on the team.
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Not only that, but among rotation players, Mudiay also passes the ball out of the drive most frequently at 39.1%. This is extremely important for a team that ranks dead last in just about every meaningful passing statistic. Mudiay is the only guy on the team who strikes a balance between hunting for his own shot and creating for others. Burke, who I’ve previously praised for his passing, has fallen in love with his own shot. Particularly after his DNP-CDs, he’s been rarely looking to play-make. THJ and Trier are just born to get buckets. On the other end of the spectrum, Frank Ntilikina is often too passive. His drives rarely result in points or assists. Mudiay has the ability and the mindset to do both:
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Mudiay’s driving style, though not awe-inspiring, is a nice blend of shooting, passing and not turning it over. This Knicks team desperately needs that skill set. Coach Fizdale has made it clear that he believes Mudiay is the best passer on the team. Though it’s not saying a lot at this point, it may be true. This season, Mudiay will get every chance to show his growth as a finisher and overall player. Hopefully, he takes this opportunity to prove wrong his critics from his Denver days.
